REAL ID and Unreal Lines: TSA’s New Travel Adventure

This Week’s Focus: The REAL ID Deadline—Are We Ready?

After years of postponements, the federal REAL ID Act will be enforced starting May 7, 2025. U.S. travelers aged 18+ will need a REAL ID–compliant license or acceptable alternative to board domestic flights. Yet, compliance remains low—only about 61% of IDs are expected to meet the requirement by the deadline. This week’s article explores how widespread unpreparedness could strain airport operations, delay flights, and overwhelm TSA officers. We break down where compliance lags, why the risk of disruption is real, and what airlines and airports can do to prepare for the expected surge in ID-related holdups.

This newsletter follows very few requirements. But when government bureaucracy, queueing, and air travel collide, I’m required to comment. These are the rules—I don’t create them, I just adhere to them.

After nearly two decades of delays, the federal REAL ID Act enforcement will finally take effect on May 7, 2025, and every U.S. air traveler aged 18 or older must present a REAL ID–compliant driver’s license/ID or an acceptable alternative (i.e., passport) to pass through TSA airport security for domestic flights. Travelers without compliant identification risk being denied access to flights.

In today’s article we analyze the expected impact of the REAL ID deadline on travelers and the aviation sector (including the number of unprepared travelers), the implications on operations and performance for airports and airlines, regional problem areas with low compliance, and strategies to mitigate disruption.

Let’s take off to get a closer look.

REAL ID Compliance Status and At-Risk Travelers

Despite a lengthy lead time and previous extensions, compliance rates for REAL ID remain well below 100% nationally. As of early 2024, only about 56% of U.S. driver’s licenses and state IDs in circulation met REAL ID standards. DHS officials estimated that by May 2025 this figure would only rise to roughly 61.2%.

In other words, approximately 38–39% of Americans with state-issued IDs—on the order of tens of millions of individuals—will still not have a REAL ID-compliant license or ID by the deadline. Many may not possess alternative TSA-accepted ID either. In late 2022, the U.S. Travel Association estimated that 83 million Americans (34%) lacked any acceptable form of ID for air travel (REAL ID, passport or other), prompting DHS to postpone the deadline to 2025. While compliance has improved since then, a substantial portion remains non-compliant.

The figure above shows REAL ID compliance rates, revealing that National REAL ID adoption is far from complete. Certain states lag dramatically—Pennsylvania is only at 26.4% as of April 2025—and another 22 states are under 40%, including populous states like New Jersey (estimated around one-third). By contrast, states that started early, such as California, have achieved higher uptake (~17 million REAL IDs issued in CA by early 2024, over 55% of its licensed drivers).

For the flying public, these percentages translate into millions of travelers potentially unprepared to meet the new ID requirement. The TSA, which screens about 2 to 3 million passengers daily at U.S. airports, finds that in recent months, roughly 80% present a REAL ID–compliant license or alternative form of ID. That leaves approximately 20% currently presenting a non-compliant driver’s license as their ID. On a busy day with 2.5 million air travelers, that percentage equates to about 500,000 people currently using an ID that will no longer be accepted from May 7 onward. If even a fraction of these travelers show up unaware of the rule change (or without alternate identification), there could be chaos at airport security.

Using the above proportions, if 20% of daily passengers are unprepared, that’s ~475,000 travelers per day potentially ineligible to fly. Not all will attempt to fly without valid ID—public awareness and last-minute passport use will reduce the number—but even a smaller fraction is significant. If 5% of travelers on Day 1 lack the required ID and have no alternative, that’s still ~125,000 passengers.

For context, a 2019 U.S. Travel Association analysis projected that about 78,000 passengers could be turned away on the first day if REAL ID enforcement commenced with low compliance, translating to $40 million in lost travel spending on that day alone. The potential scale in 2025 is equal or greater (even with higher compliance) given the sheer volume of daily flyers. Airports and airlines are bracing for a surge of confused or upset travelers in early May who will “learn the hard way” that their standard license is no longer sufficient.

Impacts on Airport Operations and Security

If you think holding a REAL ID makes you immune to these issues, think again.

Airport security checkpoints are expected to experience significant strain and longer processing times when REAL ID enforcement begins. TSA officers will no longer simply wave through a traveler with a standard license; instead, if a passenger presents a non-compliant ID and lacks an acceptable alternative, TSA policy is to undertake additional screening measures and identity verification—or ultimately refuse entry at the checkpoint. This process could be time-consuming and create bottlenecks at security, as it may involve secondary, manual ID verifications requiring the traveler to provide personal information to corroborate their identity.

Even a relatively small percentage of non-compliant passengers can slow down the screening process markedly. Verifying a traveler’s identity without an acceptable ID can take several minutes per person, compared to the few seconds for a standard ID check.

How do I know?

When I moved from Kellogg to Wharton—and from Illinois to Pennsylvania—I applied for a new driver’s license and was immediately issued the temporary license (until the real one arrived later). I didn’t check whether I could fly with a temporary license, but the worried look on the TSA officer’s face when I showed it to them gave me the answer. That day I learned that you don’t actually need a government issued ID to fly (at least up until now). You can fly with two credit cards, if they can be used to verify your identity. Granted, the level of search scrutiny was as if I were a terrorist carrying a bomb, and while no cavity search was used, the process was very thorough. But those were the rules, and I was just thankful to make my flight.

TSA has acknowledged that widespread non-compliance poses a “serious risk of operational disruption [and] negative public impact” at airports. Using a simple simulation, the figure below illustrates the hypothetical relationship between the percentage of travelers needing special ID verification and the average security wait time. If 5% of travelers require extra processing, average wait times could roughly double (e.g., from 15 to 30+ minutes). At 10% needing special handling, waits might triple to 45 minutes or more. In worst-case scenarios (15–20% non-compliance at checkpoints), hour-plus waits and spiraling queues could result, as TSA officers are tied up vetting IDs instead of throughput screening. These effects would be most acute during the initial weeks of enforcement, especially at major hubs.

To manage these delays, TSA plans to implement “additional screening measures” for non-compliant travelers. This might include dedicated officers for identity verification or separate lanes for those without proper ID. However, such measures still require time and manpower. Longer lines at security not only inconvenience passengers but also pose knock-on effects: travelers stuck in ID verification may miss their departure windows, leading to last-minute no-shows at gates and potentially delaying flight takeoff as crews wait or offload baggage. TSA officials “anticipate some disruption” and stress that the public must take the deadline seriously. Indeed, security experts have warned May 7 could be a “stressful day or 10” at airports until the new procedures normalize.

Unless the TSA adds significant excess capacity of screeners for those first few days (or months), the disruptions are expected to impact all passengers—directly or indirectly. And if you’re banking on the TSA to have adequate capacity, I have a bridge (with no tolls) to sell you.

Impacts on Airline Performance and Schedules

The REAL ID enforcement is not just a TSA issue; it will also bleed into airline operations and performance metrics nationwide. Some of the anticipated impacts include:

Flight Delays and Turnaround Disruptions: If multiple ticketed passengers are delayed or turned away at security, flight departures may be affected. While airlines won’t hold a plane for every passenger, widespread issues could prompt gate agents to delay boarding to check who is still in security lines. More often, flights depart with empty seats when passengers don’t clear security in time, and if those passengers have checked luggage, airlines must locate and offload the bags for security reasons—potentially causing significant delays. Even a few such incidents each day at a major airport can cascade, causing missed takeoff slots or crew timing issues. The result could be reduced on-time performance for airlines in the weeks following May 7.

Again: this will not only impact those without REAL ID, but everyone!

Passenger No-Shows and Rebooking: Airlines expect an uptick in last-minute passenger no-shows (i.e., people denied entrance at the checkpoint). This will create operational headaches: empty seats that could have been sold or reassigned, and passengers who will need to be rebooked on later flights once they obtain proper ID. Airline customer service centers and gate agents may be overwhelmed by rebooking those who missed flights due to ID issues. In tight travel periods, re-accommodating those passengers could prove difficult, leading to travel disruptions potentially spanning days. A previous industry analysis warned that tens of thousands of would-be flyers could be unable to board on day one. Such volume of rebookings and refunds would inevitably hurt airline revenues (the $40 million daily loss figure cited earlier for travel spending gives a sense of the economic stakes).

Reduced Demand (Short-Term): Paradoxically, the enforcement may also deter some travel temporarily. News of people being turned away could cause travelers without passports or REAL IDs to cancel or postpone trips until they sort out their ID, resulting in a short-term dip in domestic air travel demand. Airlines were already “worried about weaker demand” in 2025 due to economic factors, and an ID-related slump would compound that. The U.S. Travel Association and airport trade groups lobbied for deadline extensions precisely to avoid a shock to the system that might “screw up travel for the whole country,” as one commentator put it.

In summary, airlines could see more missed connections, higher customer service burdens, and potentially a blip in load factors and revenue until travelers adapt to the new requirements. Airports, too, are bracing for frustrated customers and possible crowd control issues at security checkpoints and ticket counters (where many will likely seek assistance when denied by TSA).

Mitigation Strategies and Recommendations

To avert a travel meltdown, stakeholders are implementing and recommending several mitigation measures. Managers in the travel industry (airline operations, airport management, etc.) as well as policy makers should consider the following actionable steps:

Phased Enforcement & Warnings: Rather than a hard cutoff that fully bars all non-compliant travelers to board their flights starting on May 7, the TSA is planning a phased enforcement period. Building on that, agents could initially allow travelers without REAL ID to proceed after a rigorous identity verification and issue a warning notice, effectively giving them a grace period to obtain a REAL ID before their next flight. The TSA has also suggested a possible “three strikes” policy—up to three warnings before refusal to fly. This approach would minimize immediate disruption while still pushing compliance. It must be communicated carefully to avoid encouraging complacency, but as a failsafe it can prevent thousands of outright denied boardings in 2025.

Personally, I’m a fan of the stricter approach. My students know that being a minute late in my class is like being 90 minutes late—they are not permitted to enter. The difference with REAL ID is the externalities imposed on those who complied and made the switch. In my class, students who arrive on time don’t lose class time. On a flight, passengers who board on time are delayed by those held up at the security checkpoint. But the airlines won’t do what I do in my class, especially when it’s 20% of the passengers.

Surge DMV Capacity & Mobile ID Units: In the lead-up to the deadline, state DMVs must continue expanding capacity for last-minute applicants. For example, some states have opened extended hours (“REAL ID Saturdays” or special DMV days) and deployed mobile units to high-demand areas (city centers, campuses, even airports) to issue REAL IDs. States with low compliance should surge resources—add temporary staff, walk-in locations, and partner with libraries or local offices—to handle the last-minute rush. This can be funded through federal grants or state emergency funds given the national security implications. Even after the deadline, keep these services ongoing for a few months to catch procrastinators.

Maybe even charge a priority fee to those who need expedited service—I’ve always been ambivalent about priority queues, but this is one of the most justifiable cases.

Public Awareness Campaigns: A concerted public information effort is critical. DHS and TSA have been broadcasting the message on websites, social media, and signage at airports. “ID required by May 7, 2025” posters are up at many checkpoints, yet surveys still show many Americans are either unaware of the deadline or assume it will be delayed again. Ramping up targeted outreach in early 2025 through the following actions could help: airlines should email and text all booked passengers about REAL ID requirements; travel booking sites and OTAs should flash warnings during purchase; state governments can utilize PSA announcements on TV/radio, especially in regions with low uptake. A last-mile idea is for airlines to flag passengers at check-in in the weeks around the deadline—e.g., prompt: “Do you have a REAL ID compliant license or passport for travel?”—to catch those who may otherwise show up with the wrong ID.

On-Site Identity Solutions: For the unavoidable cases of travelers arriving without proper ID, airports and TSA could implement on-site solutions to reduce delays. Augment them with technology and staff so that those travelers are removed from the normal flow quickly and vetted in parallel. The TSA might also explore biometric verification (e.g., comparing live photos against passport databases or state DMV photos) to confirm identity faster for someone who only has a non-compliant license. This can speed up the extra screening process and reduce wait times. In the long run, investments in trusted traveler programs and biometric ID could offer alternatives to a physical REAL ID card, as advocated by industry groups.

Temporary Policy Tweaks: If specific regions are in crisis (e.g., a state with extremely low compliance or DMV backlog), authorities could consider short-term policy relief. Issue temporary waivers or extensions for certain populations. For instance, DHS could grant a brief grace period for residents of a particular state that had extenuating circumstances, or allow travelers who can prove they’ve applied for a REAL ID (receipt in hand) to fly in the interim. Another idea floated by some lawmakers is to allow certain state documents or digital IDs as a stopgap. These would require careful security evaluation, but extraordinary one-time measures could alleviate pressure in the first months post-deadline.

Airline Coordination: Airlines should coordinate with TSA and airports in preparation for May 7. Airlines could proactively identify bookings that might be at risk. For example, loyalty program data or previous travel records might indicate if a customer has a Known Traveler Number (Global Entry, etc.) or used a passport before—if not, they might be relying on a standard license. Airlines can reach out to those customers with reminders. Additionally, on the operational side, airlines should have plans for handling mass no-shows: keep standby lists handy to fill seats if possible, have ground staff ready to remove bags for no-show passengers quickly, and ensure customer service hotlines are staffed up for rebooking. Scenario planning for various levels of REAL ID disruption will help airlines maintain resilience.

By executing the above strategies, the industry and government can mitigate the worst outcomes. The goal is to avoid a situation where on May 7, and the weeks that follow, airports are clogged with confused travelers and flights are being cancelled or delayed en masse due to ID issues. Every percentage point increase in compliance before the deadline directly translates to fewer people needing special screening and fewer disruptions—so efforts should focus on maximizing that compliance and managing those who still fall through the cracks.

Conclusion

The impending REAL ID deadline represents a major inflection point for U.S. air travel security requirements. It could severely strain airport security operations and airline logistics in the short term, leading to longer lines, missed flights, and financial impacts.

However, with prudent planning and policy measures, the worst-case scenario can be averted. A phased enforcement approach, aggressive public outreach, operational preparedness by DMVs, TSA, and airlines, and creative stopgap solutions can collectively blunt the disruption.

For frequent flyers the advice is clear: ensure you and your teams have compliant IDs or passports well ahead of the deadline, and build in extra time at the airport around early May 2025.

Nevertheless, you must admit, with REAL ID, the TSA finally found a way to make airport lines even more unforgettable than vacations themselves. Inspired by all this, I’m organizing Queueing Office Hours: come stand with me in line and learn operations at the same time.