I’d expect the natural equilibrium to be human drivers flexing in for peak demand while AVs cover the steady baseline. Why do the models suggest otherwise?
Excellent point. This will be the case in the short to medium run. In the long run, I think we will have the self-driving cars used also for peak. One also has to imagine an equilibrium where consumer own EVs that they can then use during peak time (or off-peak) to increase their income.
I was thinking about the same point as TJ mentioned. One value we know that Uber and Lyft provides is to adjust price and attract more drivers during peak hours to match demand and supply. In world of AV dominent market, firms can own more capacity (i.e. AVs) to meet peak time demand or inrease price to surpress demand. it's really hard to suddenly increase AV supplies. or those AVs come from individuals or gig workers.
It’s worth noting that in markets like SF, AV/Waymo is a rideshare competitor, while in other markets AVs are on existing rideshare services (ie it is up to the platform to a manage allocation between humans & AVs).
In markets like SF, Waymo & Uber/Lyft are competing for rider demand, and so as Uber/Lyft you would cut rider prices but also try raise more supply. Waymo has been quite popular however, so human driver market may be a little oversupplied, which drives down utilization/earnings too.
I’d expect the natural equilibrium to be human drivers flexing in for peak demand while AVs cover the steady baseline. Why do the models suggest otherwise?
Excellent point. This will be the case in the short to medium run. In the long run, I think we will have the self-driving cars used also for peak. One also has to imagine an equilibrium where consumer own EVs that they can then use during peak time (or off-peak) to increase their income.
I was thinking about the same point as TJ mentioned. One value we know that Uber and Lyft provides is to adjust price and attract more drivers during peak hours to match demand and supply. In world of AV dominent market, firms can own more capacity (i.e. AVs) to meet peak time demand or inrease price to surpress demand. it's really hard to suddenly increase AV supplies. or those AVs come from individuals or gig workers.
You can imagine a situation where people own some of these AV's let me drive other people when they don't need them or when the price is high enough.
It’s worth noting that in markets like SF, AV/Waymo is a rideshare competitor, while in other markets AVs are on existing rideshare services (ie it is up to the platform to a manage allocation between humans & AVs).
In markets like SF, Waymo & Uber/Lyft are competing for rider demand, and so as Uber/Lyft you would cut rider prices but also try raise more supply. Waymo has been quite popular however, so human driver market may be a little oversupplied, which drives down utilization/earnings too.