The Olympics and the Great Condom Shortage: A Gold Medal in Logistics

The 2024 Summer Olympics just started in Paris and, as always, there’s an overall sense of excitement.  

As a child, the Olympic Games were an event I eagerly looked forward to. My first memory is the Olympics of 1980 in Moscow, but since neither Israel nor the U.S. participated, it was more about watching from the sidelines as a seven-year-old, rather than truly rooting for anyone. 

In 1984, however, the Olympic Games in Los Angeles defined that summer, and probably shaped my lifelong approach to sports. Those Games, with Mary Lou Retton, Carl Lewis, Edwin Moses, and Seb Coe, were 16 days of glory. I still remember trying to stay awake to watch the games since they were mostly broadcasted either late at night or in the very early morning hours, in Israel. 

Over the years, I haven’t been able to dedicate the desired amount of time to watch, but I still try to sneak in as much as possible to follow the track and field sports as well as the occasional odd sport (you know, like cycling).  

In today’s article however, I won’t be writing about sports, but will focus on the supply chain that supports such a momentous and demanding event as the Olympic Games. Bringing the best athletes from around the world and expecting peak performance requires meticulous planning and execution, from food and medical supplies to equipment and anything else deemed necessary…

Even items that are not directly related to their performance are important, since athletes don’t just compete, but also socialize. And as they do, it’s important that they remain safe and healthy. And this brings me to today’s main topic: The condom supply chain of the Olympic Games. 

Typically, this is a very prim and proper newsletter, but sometimes it’s necessary to cover topics that might be more fitting to a popular outlet. 

The condom shortage at the Olympics is one such topic, and highlights the unique logistical challenges that come with hosting the games.

Let’s try to better understand this topic.

The Condom Shortage: Why is it So Hard?

Ever since the condom count was first reported at the 1988 Seoul Olympics, where 8,500 condoms were distributed, the press has kept a keen eye on this number. The supply of condoms has varied significantly over the years, reflecting both the increasing awareness and the number of participating athletes.

For example, in 2012, London distributed 150,000 condoms but stocked out after five days. The number of condoms handed out in each Olympic village has been increasing steadily over the years. 

So you may be wondering: What’s so complicated in running a supply chain for an event that is usually sold out with a pretty predictable number of athletes, who have a very specific regimen in almost everything they do?

The issue is that hosting the Olympics is a single, high-intensity event with many unknowns and no room for errors. Here are some key challenges:

Single Event: Unlike a recurring event, the Olympics happen once every four years in a different location, making it difficult to predict specific logistical needs. A lot can change in four years… For example, Tokyo was under the heavy threat of Covid, so athletes were asked…not to socialize. 

Unknown Interaction: The number of interactions (and thus the demand for condoms) can vary widely based on several factors, including athlete behavior and cultural attitudes, as well as the timing of the events. Not all athletes arrive at the beginning. Not all of them stay until the end. 

No Time to Respond: Once the Games start, there’s no time for significant adjustments. Any shortages must be managed in real-time, often with little flexibility.

High Spending, Minimal Waste: There’s a need to ensure sufficient supply without overspending or creating too much waste. Balancing this is an art and a science. While this may be the era of prosperity, there is more awareness regarding waste.

All these factors are pretty much the hallmark of a newsvendor. You may say that the cost of overage and underage are a little unclear, and you’re right, but I would say that the factor that lacks most clarity is demand itself.

Historical Data 

As I mentioned above, since 1988 when the AIDS/HIV epidemic was at its peak, condoms started being handed out during the Olympic Games. We know the number of participants (I only considered athletes, you may also account for coaches), and the number of condoms. 

What we don’t know is whether the number of condoms was sufficient, so any attempt at a real calibration is difficult. 

The only indication is that in London, the organizers ran out within 5 days. 

Estimating Demand for the Paris Olympics

To try and estimate condom demand for Paris, let’s start with the Olympic Games for which condoms only lasted five days (London 2012). 

We’re also going to use Metcalfe’s Law (so to speak) to compute the number of potential interactions. Note: I’m making zero assumptions on gender or sexual orientation.

We can then apply this to specific games from the past (Rio 2016):

In reality, Rio handed out 450K condoms, which may seem like an egregious number, but when looking at these numbers it doesn’t seem so. 

Now, back to Paris. 

These calculations assume no variability. 

If we assume variability and want to cover a 95% service level, we would increase the number to avoid a stockout, but you see where this is going. 

Looking at the numbers, Paris is way off (they’ve calculated only 200K male condoms and 20K female equivalents). 

Let’s figure out why.

The Impact of Dating App Penetration

In 1988, Tinder and Grinder didn’t exist. 

Now they do…

Do these apps increase the likelihood of socializing? Do they increase the likelihood of condom use?

A priori, I don’t know. So let’s look at what the research says. 

The paper “The association between smartphone dating applications and college students’ casual sex encounters and condom use” explores the connection between the use of smartphone dating apps and unprotected sexual intercourse with casual partners among college students. The study aims to identify whether dating-app users are more likely to engage in risky sexual behaviors, including unprotected sex with casual partners.

The authors run a cross-sectional study conducted on four Hong Kong university campuses, and use a structured questionnaire to collect data on the use of dating apps, sexual history, and socio-demographic information from 666 students. Multiple logistic regressions were applied to explore the associations. 

I know what you’re thinking: College is different from the Olympics (good point) and surveys are not the best way to extract accurate data (excellent point).

But I couldn’t find anything more reliable. 

The main results showed that dating app users were significantly more likely to have had unprotected sex with a casual partner (aOR: 10.06) and using such apps for more than 12 months increased this likelihood (aOR: 13.56). The authors also found that bisexual/homosexual males were particularly more likely to engage in these behaviors.

Implications for the Condom Supply at the Paris Olympics: 

Behavioral Analysis: By understanding that dating app users, who may represent a significant portion of the athlete population, are more likely to engage in unprotected sex, we can adjust condom supply accordingly.

Duration and Frequency of Use: The findings suggest that prolonged use of dating apps correlates with increased sexual activity and decreased condom use. Assuming athletes use dating apps during their stay, the demand for condoms might be lower than anticipated, especially among those who use such apps extensively.

Risk Groups Targeting: Targeted distribution ensures that those most likely to engage in unprotected intercourse are well-supplied. An adequate supply of condoms should be given to groups identified as high-risk, such as bisexual/homosexual males (based on the study). 

Combining the behavioral insights with Metcalfe’s Law, which suggests that the number of opportunities for intercourse increases along with the number of pairs, we can create a more accurate demand forecast. For instance, if we know the number of athletes likely to use dating apps, we can estimate the number of interactions and thus the number of condoms needed.

Enhanced Estimation

So based on this information, let’s try to improve our estimation. 

I’m also making the following assumptions:

Number of Athletes: 11,000

Percentage of Athletes Using Dating Apps: Assume 50% of athletes use dating apps based on common usage rates among young adults and athletes. We will assume that those who use apps will only have sex with other app users, and vice versa. 

Duration of Stay: 16 days

Unprotected Sex Probability Among App Users: 75% of interactions might involve unprotected sex, so 25% will use condoms.

Unprotected Sex Probability Among Non-App Users: Assume a lower rate of unprotected sex, say 50%, so 50% will use condoms.

We can now compute using the same logic as above:

The number is lower than what we previously found. Now, there’s always a chance that people will be less active, or everyone will practice safety, but we at least have an upper and lower bound. 

Note that I’m not even trying to forecast the standard deviation, but I believe that it only increases with the use of dating apps, since it allows non-athletes to find available and interested athletes and vice versa. 

This is the challenging part of estimating demand when you don’t really know whether or not a stockout actually occurred in previous occasions. 

Of course, it’s possible that some just keep them as a souvenir. We’ll never know. 

Conclusion

The Olympic Games are not just about sports; they are a massive logistical challenge that requires careful planning and execution. Ensuring an adequate supply of essentials, including condoms, is crucial to maintaining the well-being of athletes and supporting the spirit of the Games. 

As we watch the events unfold, let’s also appreciate the behind-the-scenes efforts that make this global celebration possible.

And if you’re lucky enough to be attending, please be responsible and keep yourself and others safe by bringing your own supply…